This is a solo replay of the fall of the Philippines, played in tiny tidbits over about a week of evenings (as time became available). In setting this up after not having played it for some time, I noted again that there are some setup differences to the Strategic Scenario: There is no US seaplane tender in Davao, and the US has only 8 command points available. In our playings of the Strat Scenario, 10 would be used on the Philippines on turn one, and 6 of these would be used to activate submarines to save them for later strategic warfare. Also, the US player has no real incentive to preserve any ships for later campaigns. I decided to give him 10 points the first month and assume he'll be able to activate units via ABDA after Manila has fallen (but that it will not be possible to provide an airbridge from ABDA after January).

I played with all our house and "chrome" (but not experimental) rules (available on Web-Grognards). In particular, note that the Manila hex is rated as clear in this game and Bataan is considered a separate landmass in the Corregidor hex. Units on Bataan and Corregidor count as two different hexes for the victory conditions (which basically require the Japanese to clear all but one hex from US units till the end of February).

Ground combats are described in the manner "[hex attacker TQ/attacker strength:def.TQ/def.str. DR att.loss:def.loss]". "MR" expresses a mandatory retreat for the particular side, a "B" following the TQ (troop quality) means the unit is broken, "A" after the TQ means the TQ is only half the printed value because it's an amphibious assault without a prior friendly unit in the hex. An arrow ('->') shows the effect of size dieroll modifiers.

The US places 2x2EL0 and the B-17 at Manila, 1EL0(3) at Panay.

The Japanese spend all points to activate all units for a two-week operation (33CP + 12 for the HQ). In theory that would give the US player a chance to activate something after the first operation, but in practice he will need all his points in that scenario as soon as possible, so I didn't leave anything aside for eventualities.

The end of the Contact Phase finds TF 02 (Ryujo, 2xNachi, Sendai, Shiratsuyu, APD Minekaze; in real world terms: 1 CVL, 4 CA, 4CL, 6 APD) within range of Davao. TF 05 (AA2), TF06 (APD Mutsuki), TF09 (DD Kagero), TF10 (DD Asashio) are spread out N and E of Luzon. TF 04 (AA1, 2xDD Kagero, DD Fubuki, 2xCL Nagara, CA Takao) stands NW of Luzon (this TF is detected). The Allies activate the South Luzon Corps, the Mindanao division, 3 subs in Manila, and the two 1E-L0 fighter units in Manila. The first battle cycle begins.

Dec 3, Day AM [DR 3], Japanese Initiative [Automatic]

146 Reg lands at Davao, taking the port. 48 Div. lands at San Miguel Bay. 13 Mar Bn at 3921 (Casiguran Bay), 7 Mar Bn at 4021, 65 Brig. at 4020, taking over the empty airfields. 16 Div disembarks from TF04 at Lingayen Gulf. A search finds that no Allied air units are present on the airfields at Lingayen Gulf.

In the Advantage Air phase, there are two massive strikes, one at Manila and one at Lingayen Gulf. The strike against Manila involves 90 fighters and 165 bombers. The strike is uncoordinated, but the CAP [strength: 4+1(12 steps)-2(def.level)=3] misses. The escorts [strength: 7+2(6 steps)] manage one measly hit on the CAP [DR 9]. AA fire destroys 1 fighter step. Bombardment hits the Res Corps, but it withstands the attack.

The strike at Lingayen contains 90 fighters and bombers each [1EL2, 2EL1]. There are no losses, and the North Luzon Corps breaks under the bombardment. The subsequent naval bombardment at Lingayen causes another TQC, resulting in the Corps taking a hit.

Ground combat at Lingayen sees the Japanese safely on land, but still stuck to the beachhead [3A/12:2B/11. DR 3: 2:3MR. TQC 0, no retreat].

In the disadvantage movement phase, the South Luzon Corps moves to Manila to prop up the defense there, the Mindanao Div moves to 3320 (which is Mixed and therefore better defensible than the Clear hex it started in), 2 subs move from Manila to Lingayen. There are 7 sub attacks on the 7 units. Two attacks are screened, 1 hit is gained on each CL, 1 on the empty AA.

In the disadvantage air phase, 165 allied fighters (all that are active) attack the 48 Div in San Miguel Bay for no damage to either side.

Dec 5: would be dusk, but Op Player makes it Day AM. Allied Initiative! [1->3:7].

The US subs attack again massively at Lingayen. Of 7 attacks, only one is screened. 1 DD is sunk and a hit is scored on a Takao cruiser for 1 sub lost.

The US air units fly a ground strike against the 16 Division for no harm to both sides. They land on Panay, a wily move since the days of Manila might be numbered. (Panay does have the disadvantage though that only 6 steps may be alerted or fly missions, and now there are 12 steps (180 planes) stationed there.)

Naval bombardment at Lingayen results in another hit for the North Luzon Corps.

In the Disadvantage Movement Phase, TF04 runs from Lingayen but again suffers 6 sub attacks (of which two are screened). Two CLs are sunk (3 hits on a Critical hit result) for one sub lost. Without being detected, a massive air strike hits Manila, where strafing air units find the airfields empty. The bombardment of Res corps and South Luzon Corps by two bomber units each leaves the former broken, the second intact. [The initiative shift proves to be an advantage to the Japanese as the Res Corps will have no chance to rally before Japanese troops reach Manila.]

Dec 7: new week, Night [DR0]. Japanese Initiative [3->5 vs. 1].

The 48 Division moves to Manila. On Mindanao, safely ensconced in the hills, the Mindanao Division shrugs off a naval bombardment.

The 48 Division launches a full assault against the defenders of the Manila area. With the Res Corps broken, the main pressure falls on the South Luzon Corps and it cannot withstand. The Philippine and US troops stream to Bataan and South Luzon. Manila falls, the remaining 40 B-17s and CV Langley are lost. [7/12:3/14. DR2: 0:6MR, TQC 8] At Lingayen, the defenders also suffer strong losses, but hold [5/10:2B/8. DR 3, 1:4MR. TQC 1]

The Mindanao division succumbs to repeated naval bombardment. Once contact with the non-pursuing Japanese is broken, the Reserve and South Luzon Corps both rally.

Note that this week's attack is very important for the course of the naval part of the scenario - the capture of Manila gives the Japanese a port to Deactivate. If it had not occurred right away, the Japanese naval units would have had to pull out the next turn to start the trip back to Formosa or Davao.

Dec 9 Day AM, Japanese Initiative [4->6 vs. 6].

The Japanese troops that landed on Luzon's northern coast move southward. The 65 Brigade reinforces the assault by the 16 Division without gaining much ground [5/6:2/4. DR 7, 1:2]. Japanese air units are moved to Manila. The Mindanao Division loses another step to naval bombardment. The disadvantage air mission consists of another attack on the 16 Div, without losses to either side.

Dec 11 is another Day Cycle. Another US air attack on 16 Div gains nothing, the Mindanao division loses another step under Japanese bombardment.

December 13 is Dusk, no air units fly (actually, the US should have flown, dusk landing losses or not since they'll soon be gone. This was a bad decision). The Mindanao division fails to rally. This is the last cycle of the operation.

With no side bidding, the month ends. The South Luzon Corps is rebuilt to 3 steps. The Mindanao Division and North Luzon Corps are isolated due to not being within US air cover which causes the Mindanao Division to lose another step.

On January 1, the Japanese activate 43 points for another 2-week operation. The 16 Div. will be activated later with the two points left. (This way the Japanese get two separate attacks against the North Luzon Corps.)

Davao: TF02 (Nachi,Shiratsuyu,Sendai), 2EL2, 146 Reg 7 Manila: 48 Div, 1EL2, 2EL1 5 Lingayen: 65 Brig. (16 Div later) 1 Luzon: 7 Mar Bn. 1 Pescadores: TF03 (3DD,AA), 1EL2, 2x2E 11 Formosa: LRA, TF09 (DD) 2 Palau: Ryujo, Nachi 4

The US aborts the Contact Phase after two impulses since he has an Intercept condition, and spends 5 command points (1 for air, 1 for Boise, 2 for DD's, 1 for sub). USS Houston remains stationary to guard Panay unless needed.

January 1: Day PM [DR8], Japanese Initiative [DR9:1]. A massive attack (165 fighters, 45 bombers) attacks Panay airfield and is undetected. The bombers miss, but the strafing fighters destroy 75 planes on the ground. The SL and Res Corps are bombed, resulting in the loss of 15 bombers (1 step) for no effect. At Lingayen, even a tactically botched Japanese attack is sufficient for the 65 Brigade to disperse the remains of the North Luzon Corps. [5/5:2B/2. DR9 (2MR:2). J TQC 1] A US air attack on Lingayen has no effect.

January 3: Day AM [op player option]. Japanese Initiative [8:4]. The Japanese move to pursue the US troops in South Luzon and load the 7 Marine Bn for transport to Mindanao. 210 bombers attack the Reserve Corps on Bataan. 15 are lost, but the unit breaks. Another massive attack hits Panay, 165 fighters and 45 bombers. The US fighters rise to the occasion and shoot down 30 fighters [2 steps on a DR 0, raising them to L1]. The escorts cause 2 hits themselves and another 3 hits are caused by strafing and bombing, for 75 US planes lost.Naval Bombardment by 12 destroyers breaks the South Luzon Corps.

Ground combat: Both the attacks against South Luzon [5/10:2/3. DR9->8, 4MR:2. TQC 3] and on Bataan [7/11:3/6. DR1, 1:3MR. TQC 2] cause losses, but fail to gain ground due to good morale rolls on the US side. An attack by the US fighters on the 16 Division loses 15 planes.

5 January. Night [DR1]. Japanese Initiative [6:3]. Two destroyer units move to Bataan, destroying the Corregidor fortress in two rounds of naval combat. Their bombardment of the Reserve Corps gains nothing.

January 7, Day AM, Japanese Initiative [6:6]. Beginning of second week. Another attack on Panay (135 fighters, 45 bombers) hits Panay and again meets determined resistance. The CAP unit, now a 1EL1(3), again heroically rolls a 0 for 2 hits against the uncoordinated strike, aborting the escort, which still manages to score 2 hits, leaving behind a tiny core of 15 veteran US fliers (a one-step 1EL2 unit). The V Division is bombed for no result. On Bataan, the Res Corps loses a step to naval bombardment. The second week's assaults see the Japanese victorious on Luzon as both the SL Corps [5/7:2B/1. DR5->3, 1:1] and Res Corps [7/10:3B/2. DR0, 1:4] are eliminated. The US CLs (the 'Boise' counter represents Boise and Marblehead) and six DD's move to Surigao Strait in the vain hope of preventing the unloading of the Japanese Marines on Mindanao, while the remaining DD's, too far behind to join, move to Davao to bombard the 146 Regiment.

January 9, Night [DR0]. Japanese Initiative [9:0]. The escort DDs of the APD transporting the Marines join the fleet at Surigao strait. The 146 Regiment moves to 3320. 16,48 Div move to Manila.

Battle of Surigao Strait

The US ships meet two Japanese CAs and two CLs escorted by 18 destroyers (CA3 Nachi,Sendai+3DD). In round 1, the Nachi cruisers miss Boise but the Shiratsuyu DDs sink her with a well-aimed torpedo salvo. The other units sink 3 of the US DDs. In the second round, the Japanese conserve their remaining torpedoes and sink the rest of the DDs with gunfire. The Japanese naval bombardment of Corregidor and the Allied bombardment of the 146 Inf Reg have no effect.

January 11, Day AM, Japanese Initiative [1->3:2]. The victorious Japanese TF moves to Davao, the 7 Mar Bn is unloaded from its transporting DD at 3319. 146 Reg moves to 3320. The blocking of Surigao Strait has indeed cost the Japanese a turn; a CP will have to be spent on Penalty time to bring the DD back into port. TF02 (Ryujo and escorts) moves back to Peleliu, but launches a strike at US DD2 that misses. A concentrated strike at Panay (105 fighters, 165 bombers) sees the last American CAP destroyed. The veterans achieve no hits. One unit bombs the V Division for little gain, the others score 1 hit on Houston. At Davao, the Japanese open fire on the US DDs at medium range, sinking five with torpedoes early on, and the last at short range on the 3rd round. Corregidor is again bombarded. The attack by the 146 Regiment causes the Mindanao Division to surrender since their retreat is blocked by the Marines (but they would have been eliminated anyway otherwise) [6/3:2B/3. DR5, 1:2MR, TQC4, fail]. During disadvantage movement, US subs slip through the Japanese screening destroyers at Davao to score one hit on a Nachi cruiser and sink one DD.

January 13, Day PM [DR7], Japanese Initiative [1->3:1]. The advantage air mission sees Houston sunk at Panay.

The operation goes into Penalty time on January 15, so the final DD unit can move into port. At Davao, it is intercepted by the subs which sink two DDs.

As February begins, the writing is on the wall. Eliminating one of the remaining units on Panay and Corregidor is sufficient for a Japanese victory, and they have by far enough strength available.

16 Div is rebuilt to 7 steps, 48 Div to 10, 65 Brig to 4.

Japanese activate 26+12HQ points for the Operation.

Op Contact Phase.
TF05 (Sendai,2DD) moves to Surigao Strait.
TF09(APD) moves to 3320 to pick up 146 Reg.
TF06(2DD,AA with 48Div).
TF10(APD,AA) moves towards Manila from Formosa.

US interrupts after 2 increments and activates 3 subs.

On February 1 to 3, the Japanese bring their task forces into position. Naval bombardment is delayed because the Americans have initiative on the first battle cycle. On February 3, both Panay and Corregidor are massively bombarded, to no effect.

February 5, Day AM, Japanese Initiative [1:0]. 146 Reg lands at Panay, 48 Div at Corregidor. Panay is hit by 180 planes, breaking the V Division. Corregidor is hit by 240 planes, but the Marines withstand their morale check. Naval bombardment on Panay has no effect as the V Division does not fail its TQC again and on Corregidor nothing is hit.

In Ground Combat, the 146 Reg establishes a small foothold on Panay under high losses [3A/3:2B/3. DR6 2:1] and Corregidor falls to the first assault of the 48 Division [4A/10:6/1. DR7->5 2:1].

Feb 7, Night [DR1]. Japanese Initiative [6:5]. The second week starts with the 16 Div landing on Panay. Its attack will go in using the TQ rating of the 146 regiment. All Japanese ships move to Manila to Deactivate at the end of this turn, since only the mop up remains.

The second week's assault on Panay, a virtually certain Japanese victory, sees the spearheading 146 Regiment eliminated together with the V Division. [6/8:2B/2. DR0->-2. 1:3]. Panay falls, the operation and game are over.

Wrapup

It might have been better for the US player to move the Reserve Corps to San Miguel Bay to forestall the attack on Manila (which would have corresponded somewhat to MacArthur's historical moves) than to simply await the attack there. Given the good showing of the North Luzon Corps at Lingayen Gulf, that might have prevented the fall of Manila till January. Of course, that is partially based on hindsight since a quick defeat of NL Corps would have opened the road to Manila behind the back of the Res Corps - but against the lower-quality 16 Div, the South Luzon Corps might have stood better chances than it had against the 7-rated 48 Div. The second problem was the annihilation of the US ships around Mindanao. Activating Houston and going for an easier target might have helped. Still, it's an uphill battle.

Japanese air losses in the campaign amount to 75 planes (7 air steps: 5 1EL2, 2 2EL1), US losses to 285 planes (19 steps: 1 1EL2, 3 1EL1, 13 1EL0, 2 4EL0). Of the US losses, 2 steps were lost when the airfield was overrun, 7 in air-to-air combat, 1 in AA fire, the remaining 9 on the ground. The Japanese bombers were lost to AA fire, the others mostly in air-to-air combat.

US naval losses amounted to 1 CA, 2 CL, 12 DD (in game terms 19 steps: 3 CA, 4 CL, 12DD steps) and 3 subs. Of these, Houston was sunk by aircraft.

Japanese naval losses were 2CL, 4 DD, two transports sunk, two CAs damaged (11 steps: 2 CA hits, 4 CL, 4DD, 1AA step). All hits were inflicted by submarines. (Perhaps it would make sense to increase the screening strength one notch as Steve Crowley thought it should be, or giving early war US subs only a '1' torpedo strength.)

Japanese ground losses were 19 steps (let's say about 20,000 men), US/Filipino losses were 44 steps (about 100,000 men since these units are calibrated differently), of which 3 were lost to naval bombardment, 2 to air attacks, 1 to isolation. (The air/naval part is pretty large - their main contribution usually is to break the troops in the first place and one rarely has enough aircraft to see them actually cause hits later.)

Finally, some dieroll statistics ...

US air combat: avg. 4.25
J air combat: avg. 4.75

J ground attacks: avg. 4.38 (3.75/4.83/5 in Dec/Jan/Feb)

US TQC: avg 4 (4.35/4.28/1.67)
J TQC: avg 2 (actually, there were only two TQCs, and an average of 5 would have been sufficient to withstand them, so this apparent bit of good luck had little influence)

In summary, the Japanese had good luck in ground combat in the most important first month and very good luck in the two first January attacks that could have blown up in their face, but averaged out in the long run; conversely the US had less luck in their TQC rolls, because the superficially good first month average is mostly due to the two checks stood at Lingayen after the unit was broken and could do little harm.