**Subject: **Re: Re: Imprecise Probability

**From: **Marco A. Vera (*m-vera@uniandes.edu.co*)

**Date: **Sun Dec 03 2000 - 20:59:28 MET

**sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]**Next message:**Paul Victor Birke: "MESA Fuzzy Function-Use Thereof"**Previous message:**Nadine Gisler: "New Letter"**Maybe in reply to:**Breezy: "Re: Imprecise Probability"**Maybe reply:**Marco A. Vera: "Re: Re: Imprecise Probability"

Hi:

Does someone have an electronic copy of Prof. Zadeh's paper:

"Fuzzy Probabilities", Information Processing and Management 19,

148-153, 1984 ?

Please, post it to me.

Thanks and Best regards,

Marco A. Vera

EE, M.Sc. student

Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering.

University of los Andes

Bogotá, D.C. - Colombia

m-vera@uniandes.edu.co

----- Mensaje original -----

De: Ellen Hisdal <ellen@ifi.uio.no>

Para: Multiple recipients of list <fuzzy-mail@dbai.tuwien.ac.at>

Enviado: Domingo, 19 de Noviembre de 2000 05:01 p.m.

Asunto: Re: Imprecise Probability

*>
*

*> > Hello
*

*> >
*

*> > I would like to be more specific about my previous question....
*

*> > Lets supose someone is asked to give his estimation about the
*

probability of

*> > some event, answers like "0.78 of probability" are very unlikely.
*

I would

*> > expect something as "high probability" or "low probability", here
*

we

*> > linguistic terms, wich could be associated with fuzzy sets.
*

*> > I am asking for more information on how fuzzy sets theory joins
*

with

*> > probabilty theory to manage this kind of situations.
*

*> >
*

*> > Thanks a lot.
*

*> >
*

*> > Otto
*

*>
*

*> The use of `high probability', `low probability' etc. was suggested
*

by

*> Zadeh long ago. I think it was in the paper
*

*>
*

*> @article{zoutline,
*

*> author = {Zadeh, L.A.},
*

*> title = {Outline of a New Approach to the Analysis of Complex
*

*> Systems and Decision Processes},
*

*> journal = {IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics},
*

*> year = {1973},
*

*> volume = {SMC-3},
*

*> ignored = {footnote p. 31. Use of multiplication instead of min
*

for AND.

*> Mentioned in my book in file intro.tex, sect. 1.7.3.},
*

*> pages = {28-44} }
*

*>.
*

*>
*

*> He simply defines a fuzzy set `high' or `low' over the interval
*

[0,1].

*>
*

*> Personally I have an idea that in most cases one can just as well
*

use a

*> numerical estimate of a probability value, such as .85 for `high',
*

*> >.15 for `low'. A fuzzy set over the interval [0,1] makes all
*

*> calculations more complicated. And probably this use of uncertainty
*

in

*> an uncertainty value does not really have important advantages
*

*> over a definite probability value between 0 and 1 (which also
*

expresses

*> an uncertainty in the occurrence of the given event).
*

*>
*

*> So when somebody tells you
*

*> `there is a high probability of a given event',
*

*> you can simply replace this by
*

*> `there is a probability of .85 for the event'.
*

*>
*

*> Greetings,
*

*> Ellen
*

*>
*

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