Third installment of last year's Pacific War replay... Anybody reading these things at all? :-) I realize this is probably too detailed for anyone who doesn't have the map to look at while reading this, so I intend to post a short summary of the action at the end. I kept relatively detailed records of this game since it was the first overall effort to find out if our houserules worked. Note: this month we get some naval battles. At the end of January 1942, Singapore and Manila as well as all the important spots on Borneo have fallen to the Japanese, i.e., all is on schedule. However, at this time it became clear that the pace of amphibious operations had been slowed down a bit by our initial rule which extended the one-ground-move-per-week restriction to loading and unloading. We changed the rule to allow disembarking and embarking in the same week if there's no combat, and now always play by that rule. Second, that a unit should spend a full week securing an ungarrisoned island makes no sense either. Therefore we now allow such overruns without disembarking. Nonetheless it was clear at the end of January that the Japanese faced a daunting task, not just because of time but because of prior losses. Several of the divisions were totally worn down after the first two months (the 48th on Luzon being the hardest hit). The paratroops (clinging to Palembang) were still the only troops on Sumatra, and about a half dozen bases still had to be taken in the Moluccas, but most of the units that would have to be used for that task were on Luzon or the west coast of Borneo. Finally, the Japanese had not even come close to Java; the return of the Japanese task force to Brunei (because Singapore then had not fallen) meant a long trip would have to be taken this month. However, even looking at the historical forces it was hard to see how the Japanese could have achieved their victory conditions - total control by end of February. In fact, historically, the surrender on Java went into effect on March 12. I assume that the scenario was designed so short because with the original accelerated pace of ground operations the Japanese would otherwise had it too easy. But with a more historical pace of ground operations, there is no reason not to take the historical yardstick to measure Japanese success (most authors seem to consider the Japanese conquest of the Dutch Indies to have been excellently executed anyway). So I decided to change the end date for the scenario to mid-March. Now for the action... At the start of February 42, the weather is clear everywhere. The fall of Manila and Singapore has allowed the Japanese air units to Isolate all Allied units West of Batavia, in the Philippines, and some of the Moluccan units as well, so they have to execute TQC's. Unexpectedly few of them fail the check. Reinforcement: 18Brit Div to Batavia. Shokaku, Zuikaku, Hiei, Kirishima to Saigon. The Japanese absorb 5 ground replacements (they have 33 available but no units in place to take up more than 1 per unit). In the Engineering Phase, the Dutch build an OSB on Bali to rebuild the command link to Amboina and Darwin. Many eliminated units are reconstituted at Batavia to make it TQC-proof. The Japanese face an interesting dilemma. First, they have to cover a long distance to get to several of their objectives. Second, given the limited forces available and the fact that some of these objectives (in particular, Java) are not that weakly garrisoned means that multiple attacks will be needed. Both of this suggests to divide the month into a three-week and a two-week operation (since a ground unit needs 16 Days to be able to attack three times and a month is slightly longer than four weeks, that is actually possible if no delays accumulate during the operation). The three-week operation can be used to reach the more remote objectives and to give the ground troops time to clear Java. The question is, which operation should be conducted first? Doing the 3 weeks first means more time for the planes to disrupt the target units, it also means the more important missions can start without interference from subs. Doing a 2-week operation first would allow the Japanese to make a naval sweep to get rid of the ABDA fleet; as the second operation, the transport could be sent on a 3-week mission with, very weak escorts to save points. As it turned out, this was the sequence in which it was done although delay in the first mission and the limited Japanese points dictated that second mission was also limited to 2 weeks. (I went through quite a few iterations on the mission planning before I decided it just could not be done. Probably the Japanese should try to collect a few Future Ops points in the earlier months.) Since the Allies have 60 points in one HQ, that means the Japanese need to use 58 points to win the bid for the first operation (they can add 3 points assuming they have Strategic Initiative). In the end, the Allies bid (naturally) 60 points, the Japanese 64. 3 carriers, 2 CA units sail from Saigon, two BBs from Brunei. A Nachi class CA sails from Davao with the mission of bombarding some of the Allied positions in the Moluccas. Two divisions and three smaller units are activated on Luzon, plus transports to move half of them to Panay. At Kuala Lumpur, the Guards division (the AA to transport it will come from Brunei), as well as the 55 Division and 13 Marines at Brunei. The 55 Division will again attempt to land on Java, this time at all costs. (It would be much preferable to let the Guards division do this, but the detour to pick it up in the hinterland of Malaya would be too long.) There are almost no points available to activate planes. Operational Intelligence is Intercept, and the Allies interrupt after the second move, meaning a long trip for the transports. Part of the reason why a three-week operation in the second half of the month will no longer be possible. The Allies activate their air units in Darwin and on Java and seven subs, plus assorted other units, for 23 points total. The Australian SF unit moves to Soebang from Batavia, the air units from Australia are flown to Bali. February 1 [Day PM, Japanese Adv]. The ships are still steaming along. On Luzon, the Japanese begin the cleanup of the remaining defenders. The 16 Division moves to Bataan, the 65 Brigade to southern Luzon. The 65 Brigade is still Broken, but should be enough to deal with what is left of the South Luzon Corps. In addition, the South Luzon Corps loses a step to air attack. 165 planes attack Batavia, destroying 45 fighters on the airfield and bombarding ground units. 15 bombers are lost. In Ground Combat, the 65 Brigade, despite its weak morale, makes short work of the SL Corps [3B/5:2B/1,DR2->0,1:2MR, Allies elim]. On Bataan, the 16 Division has a harder job [5/4:2B/3,DR2, 1:1]. At San Miguel Bay, the 6th Infantry Battalion, left behind when the 48 Division retreated towards Lingayen, removes the Rs Corps (and itself) from existence [7/1:3B/1, DR7,1:1,both elim]. The Guard Division finally eliminates the 28 Indian Brigade [7/11:2B/2, DR1->-1, 1:3MR]. A case of clear overkill, but they should just have done the job right the previous month. Ironically, the 65 Brigade now fails its rally DR and is Deactivated. The Allies activate the complete ABDA Fleet (7 points) and some more ground units to defend more coastal hexes on Java. On February 3 [Dusk], the Allied Task Forces (the Asiatic Fleet from Soerabaja and the ABDA fleet from Batavia are still separate task forces) begin moving northwestward to 3406 to join and are detected by Japanese planes from Palembang. The Japanese steam southwards, bringing the ABDA fleet just into range of the carrier planes. The Japanese launch an immediate airstrike, which goes in undetected. The Japanese decide to attack the ABDA TF. The core is formed by Prince of Wales, Repulse, Exeter and De Ruyter, the screen by Tromp and the Dutch and CW DD units. Prince of Wales suffers 2 hits, Repulse and Exeter 1 each and De Ruyter is missed. 15 planes are lost to AA fire, but the expert Japanese pilots master the dusk landings without further losses. On February 5, the Japanese change the lighting from Night to be able to keep pounding the Allies. The dieroll yields Day PM. However, the Allies gain Advantage. They retreat towards Java and Japanese detection fails. In the disadvantage movement phase, tension mounts as the Japanese pursue. The carriers move to 3707, the battle fleet to 3512, and their search for the ABDA fleet is successful. Elsewhere, one AA reaches Singapore, the Nachi CA reaches Menado, and at Manila, the 48 Division boards transports and sails to Panay. In the Disadvantage air mission phase, the carriers again launch another full attack against the ABDA fleet, and again it's undetected. With four units (one of them not CV capable from Palembang), the Japanese decide to spread out the attacks to maximize the damage. The first group are Prince of Wales and the Dutch DDs, both receive one hit, crippling PoW. The second group are Repulse and the CW DD, Repulse is hit and also crippled. The other units, being weaker, go for individual targets. One hit is scored on De Ruyter, crippling her, too. 15 carrier planes are lost to AA fire. 225 Japanese medium bombers meanwhile go for various targets on Java, without much success (whereas they would have caused a couple of hits if they had joined the attack on the TF, a decided tactical error). On February 7 [Dusk], the retreating Allied fleets are missed by the Japanese searches. The carriers start moving back towards Singapore instead of braving the oncoming Allied submarine screen, while the surface ships and transport bore on towards their target. Ironically, due to the sequencing of Advantages on this and the previous Battle Cycle, the Nachi CA cannot bombard at Menado and instead has to move towards the Molucca Strait if his schedule for Kendari is to be met. The AA at Singapore reaches Kuala Lumpur to take the Guards division on board. (While accusations of cowardice were heard directed at the commander of the carrier force upon his return to Singapore, later wargames at the Japanese naval academy proved that his decision was wise. In other words, I gamed out what would have happened had the carriers moved closer and therefore been caught by the submarines. The result was CV Akagi sunk and CV Hiryu suffering 1 hit, for 1 Allied sub lost to ASW combat. I think Steve Crowley was right, we have to increase the screening values a bit, those subs are just too deadly.) The Japanese attack Batavia with 90 fighters and 225 bombers. The attack is detected and resistance is tough, with 30 fighters lost to CAP and AA fire. 15 CAP planes are shot down. One target unit (11 Indian) breaks). This time the Japanese are not as lucky, 30 planes (one L2) step are lost to landing accidents in the oncoming darkness. In the Ground Combat phase, the 38 Division takes Hong Kong [6/11:5/1. DR5, 1:1]. In the disadvantage air mission phase, the Allies realize that they have what may well be their sole opportunity to strike at the Japanese fleet, and they send all available aircraft (no less than 105 fighters and 90 bombers, spread over six Dutch, CW, and Australian units, all L0, all with an anti-naval value of 0^4) to attack the transports. Sadly, the Japanese have judged their capabilities correctly. No hits are scored, but 90 aircraft are lost in the ensuing night landings. On February 9 [Night], the Japanese TF is caught by the Allied submarines. Screening fails, one transport is sunk (1 hit on the AA unit). The 55 Division suffers 2 hits. Elsewhere, almost unnoticed, the 48 Division launches its amphibious assault on the Panay division, and the Guards division goes on board for its short stint to Medan. In Ground Combat, the 16 Division, a shadow of its former self, attacks the weakly held Allied lines across the Bataan peninsula, and suffers an absolutely humiliating defeat [5/3:2B2, DR8, 2MR:0, DR6, retreat]. Only about a battalion's worth of organized troops makes it back to central Luzon. On Panay, the 48 Division's troops storm ashore under withering fire although many of the V Division's defenders just huddle brokenly in their entrenchments, However, their quality shows and they gain a beachhead [4A/3:2B/3, DR9, 1MR:1, TQC4, pass]. The Japanese battle fleet moves northwards, sinking an Allied sub that tried to attack. The Nachi CA reaches Kendari. The 7 Marine battalion is loaded onto a DD unit on Luzon and moved to Panay. On February 11 [Day AM], the 7 Marines are unloaded at Panay, and the Japanese transport fleet reaches the Batavia hex, where both sides' ships detect each other. The Guards division is landed at Medan and deactivates. Note that moving the transports into the Batavia hex with the rest of the fleet is a risky move; in the campaign they would certainly be kept to the rear instead of dragged into a potential battle. Note however that if the AA had not been taken into the Batavia hex and the Japanese had not had the Advantage in the next Battle Cycle, they could not land. In the advantage air mission phase, the Japanese attack Batavia agan, with 60 fighters and 255 bombers. CAP and escorts clash inconclusively, 30 bombers are lost to AA fire. All but two ground units are broken. Meanwhile, the battle lines are drawing close to each other at sea. The battle opens at medium range. Kongo, Haruna, Mogami, and Tone face off against Houston, De Ruyter, the CW and Dutch DDs. Haruna sinks De Ruyter. The second round is fought at short range. Japanese targets are Prince of Wales, Repulse, Houston, and the CW and Dutch DD units. Haruna sinks Repulse (good shooting here), Mogami damages Houston, Tone sinks three of the CW DDs with gunfire, and the Japanese destroyers find their mark in the Dutch destroyers, sinking all six with torpedoes. All Allied ships fire at the transports which are now in range, and Repulse manages to sink another (1 hit). In the third round, the ABDA units decide to stay since breaking off would not save them. Mogami sinks Prince of Wales, the Japanese DDs sink two US destroyers. All Allies again target the transports, and the CW destroyers manage to sink another one. 3 of 6 transports are now sunk and the 55 Division stands at 9 hits, only 3 steps left for the landing. Both fleets remain locked in combat. At Kendari, the two Nachi cruisers engage the two US destroyers, sinking them without much ado. On Panay, the freshly landed Marines break out from the beachhead established by the 48 Division, and the defending V Division lays down its arms [7/1:2B/2, DR5, 0:1MR, TQC4, fail]. The Philippine part of the victory conditions is almost achieved, only Bataan remains. In disadvantage movement, one Japanese sub is lost in a futile attack on USS Houston. The ABDA air units attack the transports again but hit nothing. Naval combat is continued at point blank range on the next Battle Cycle (Feb 13, Day PM). Interestingly enough, the Allies do get the Advantage, so the Japanese would indeed have missed the chance for a landing at Batavia if they had not brought the transports with them. Haruna sinks two CW DDs (Kongo has not had a single hit so far) Mogami scores a second hit on Houston, Tone sinks Exeter. The Japanese DDs sink Tromp. In round 2, Kongo sinks the remaining CW DDs, Mogami the last US destroyer. The third round sees the end as all Japanese units concentrate on Houston, the sole survivor and sink her, with a last salvo from Haruna administering the final hit. In the bombardment phase, Kongo destroys 15 fighters on the airfield, and the 9th Indian division breaks under fire from Tone. Other targets are not affected. In the disadvantage movement phase, the 55Div is unloaded at Batavia and the warships move to Sumatra. Note:Landing the 55Div means that the operation ends on the 17th at the earliest, making a subsequent 3-week operation useless. Another air attack on Batavia sees 15 bombers go down in flames but all units except for the Dutch division are now broken. At the end of the battle cycle, the Japanese deactivate everything, but the 55 Division cannot yet as it must still execute its amphibious assault the next turn, in Penalty Time. The operation will end immediately after the attack. Feb 15 [Dusk]. At Batavia, the regimental strength unit that was the 55 Division storms ashore, but is shot to pieces right there on the beach [3A/3:3/9. DR9->10, 3MR:0]. Their chances actually were not so bad, they had a 40% chance of establishing themselves ashore. If the submarine had not hit, it wold have been 50%. If it had been a 7TQ division, such as the Guards division, it would have been a 70% chance even with 3 steps. Now, with hindsight of course, there is an empty port nearby, perhaps I should have sent them there and used the division the next month. Perhaps I was still thinking of the end-of-February victory limit, or the possibility of taking Java in a subsequent 3-week operation if only this division established a bridgehead. The Japanese begin the next operation on February 17, bidding 39 points vs 36 for the Allies. Their main problem is finding transports for their troops. Two AAs are Deactivated on Sumatra, one at Panay. One each is available at Davao, Brunei, and Saigon. The 14 Marines are activated on Luzon and tasked with clearing Bataan. The 228 Inf Reg activated at Miri. It will be loaded onto destroyers coming from Brunei, bound for Timor. The 15 Marines and two DD units will start from Balikpapan for Kendari, the 10 Marines, at Tarakan, are bound for Menado. Finally, the 5th and 18th Divisions, as well as the 28th Inf Reg, all in Singapore, will be shipped to Java on the AA units from Brunei and Saigon. The Japanese strategy has worked insofar as no Allied ships will be available to contest the operation. Operational Intelligence is Surprise Attack. The Allies, searching for the task force that sails from Balikpapan, fail to find it in six tries, after which it is out of range. The Japanese stop the Contact Phase after 8 increments. At Singapore AA3 loads 5 Div, DD11 28Inf, at Miri, DD4 loads 228Inf, then move. DD6 loads 10Marines. 1st Battle Cycle: February 20 [Dusk]. DD3 reaches Timor, the CL Nagara reaches Menado. On Luzon, the 14 Marines move to Bataan. Timor and Menado are bombarded. The only ground combat occurs on Bataan. The Japanese Marines have a 60% chance at victory. They pierce the US and Filipino lines and with their position blown open, the Allies surrender [7/1:2B2. DR3, 0:1MR, TQC9]. On 22 February, the Japanese bound for Java move through the Allied sub screen at Bangka Island. Only two submarines get into attacking position, one attack is screened, nobody is hit. Elsewhere, the 10 Marines land at Menado, the 15 Marines at Timor. Both Menado and Timor are bombarded by destroyers to no great effect. In ground combat, the Marines coolly do their job, eliminating the Dutch in Menado [4A/1:3/1, DR0, 0:1MR] and pushing the defenders of Koepang out into the interior of Timor [4A/1:2B/1, DR1, 0:0MR, TQC3]. In the second round, the submarines at Bangka Island manage to sink a Japanese transport. On 24 February, the Allies gain Advantage and the attacks continue, seeing four hits on an escorting destroyer. The victorious Marines at Timor and Menado are loaded onto their respective transporting destroyers for the next stage on their journey. On 26 February, the 28 Infantry Regiment is landed east of Batavia at Soebang, and the 5th Division at Batavia. Another Japanese task force reaches Amboina. Amboina and Soebang are bombarded. At Soebang, the defenders break. In ground combat, the 5th and 18th Division finally establish the beachhead at Batavia [4A/21:4/9, DR1, 3:3]. The 28th Infantry Regiment runs into an ambush and dies to the last man [3A/3:2B/1, DR9->8, 2MR:0, TQC9, dead]. On 28 February, [Dusk], the Japanese unload Marines at Amboina and Kendari. Batavia, Amboina, and Kendari are bombarded, breaking the defenders at Amboina. In ground combat, the Amboina garrison manages to survive [4A/1:2B/2, DR4, 0:0], but Kendari defends against the assault [4A/1:3/1, DR9, 2MR:0, Marines eliminated]. The troops at Soebang manage to rally, elated after their victory over the Japanese. On 30 February (don't laugh), the Japanese withdraw into the nearest ports and Deactivate. With hindsight, it might have been better to land the two divisions separately at Batavia (one on the 28th), giving the Japanese another shot at killing the ABDA HQ before the month ends, at the risk of losing more steps to subs. If Batavia had fallen the doom of the Allies would be certain. As it stands, after having their transports turned away in January and decimated in February, the Japanese now have two weeks in March to take the defenders of Java plus the holdouts at Amboina and Kendari, not an impossible task, but hard. February statistics Japanese air losses: 90 fighters(30 L2CV), 60 bombers Allied air losses: 105 fighters, 45 bombers, most to dusk Japanese air combat DRs: 4.7(3) Allied air combat: DR 2.7(3) J AA dieroll avg: 8.5(2) Allied AA dieroll avg: 3.6(10) J sub DR 5(1) A sub DR 4.6(13) J ASW DR 6(7) A ASW DR 1(1) J ground combat DR 4.65(17) A ground combat DR - J rally DR 6(1) A rally DR 5.1(27) J TQC DR 6.5(2) A TQC DR 4.6(30) A ground losses: 2000 in Malaya (2 steps), 18000 in the Philippines Luzon (9 steps) of which 2000 surrendered, 7000 in the Dutch East Indies (7), 1000 at Hong Kong, 28000 total. J ground losses: 1000 in Malaya(1), 6000 in the Philippines, 6000 at sea en route to Java, 11000 in the East Indies, 1000 at Hong Kong, a disastrous 25000 total. Ships: Allies lost 8 steps in air attacks, 26 in naval combat, Japanese 8 steps to subs. Each side lost one submarine.