AI - WHY?

Martin Sewell (martin@msewell.force9.co.uk)
Tue, 5 Jan 1999 15:37:25 +0100 (MET)

Hello (or perhaps: "Help!")

I am currently doing a PhD in Intelligent Trading Systems (as in stock
markets, etc.), and as the title suggests fully intended to utilise various
aspects of Artificial Intelligence. As you'd imagine, the major goal is
trying to predict an almost-but-not-quite-random time series.

Neural networks, genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic - they all seemed so
interesting (yes, even fun!), my only concern was which technique(s) were
best applied to this sort of application.

I now seem to be gradually eliminating all of the AI techniques which I set
out to use.

Goodbye fuzzy logic - why not do it properly using statistical inference and
probability?

GAs? Just another search algorithm - adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) may
be better. (Okay, ASA could be considered AI too?)

Neural networks? Classical statistical pattern recognition may be better in
many cases.

I'm not aware of much work on the theoretical study of intelligent space.
Maybe this should be tackled first?

Any comments or suggestions would be appreciated. Either to rekindle my
enthusiasm for AI, or to confirm my suspicions.

Regards

Martin Sewell
martin@msewell.force9.co.uk

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