Re: AI - WHY? Trading Systems predicting indices.

blah (blah@blech.com)
Fri, 18 Dec 1998 21:18:31 +0100 (MET)

steve & eugene wrote:
>
> > FWIW, if they are 90% accurate on direction alone, they should be
> > among the richest folks on the planet in no time at all. Like
> > already. And I'd say the odds of that are < 1%.
>
> Yes > 90%. we have been doing this for around 5 months and this is
> documented. Can YOU do better???

Hey, I said nothing about being able to do better.

Maybe we should define terms a bit more succinctly. If I say the
Dow will close higher tomorrow, and it does, that is "correct" on
direction. I assume you are saying you are correct 90 days out
of 100 on direction.

Okay, if you're doing it, fantastic. More power to you. But the
perennial question is, if you can correctly predict the daily
direction of market indexes 90% of the time, why are you wasting
time with things like web sites or newsgroup marketing? Please
don't mind me being skeptical - I say perennial simply because I
have NEVER, out of hundreds of cases, seen any such claims pan
out over time.

Unless you are staggeringly unlucky on magnitude (say maybe the
10 days out of 100 you are wrong happen to be the largest in
magnitude), you should have absolutely no need for anyone else's
money, attention, whatever.

In my experience, end of day nets that are accurate only 60% of
the time have been tremendous money makers. That is the reason I
am perplexed. Your only problem should be that you are having a
difficult time getting fills because your positions are so large,
in which case the last thing you would want to do would be to
give away your predictions and have others compete with your
trades and increase your slippage.

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