Re: AI - WHY?

sdevaux@my-dejanews.com
Wed, 11 Nov 1998 04:20:58 +0100 (MET)

I've heared about using Markov's chains Model to studiing time series. Markov
chains are a kind of stochastic automat (i don't know the exact english term,
I just gave the litteral translation of french : automate stochastique) : the
transitions between states are not deterministic but random, each transition
has a defined probability to occure. One of the most common application of
this is to predict tha activity of LIFO, FIFO... queues. Have a look to this
model, it might give you some ideas...

Sebastien Devaux

In article <71qak3$vfc@news3.force9.net>,
"Martin Sewell" <martin@msewell.force9.co.uk> wrote:
> Hello (or perhaps: "Help!")
>
> I am currently doing a PhD in Intelligent Trading Systems (as in stock
> markets, etc.), and as the title suggests fully intended to utilise various
> aspects of Artificial Intelligence. As you'd imagine, the major goal is
> trying to predict an almost-but-not-quite-random time series.
>
> Neural networks, genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic - they all seemed so
> interesting (yes, even fun!), my only concern was which technique(s) were
> best applied to this sort of application.
>
> I now seem to be gradually eliminating all of the AI techniques which I set
> out to use.
>
> Goodbye fuzzy logic - why not do it properly using statistical inference and
> probability?
>
> GAs? Just another search algorithm - adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) may
> be better. (Okay, ASA could be considered AI too?)
>
> Neural networks? Classical statistical pattern recognition may be better in
> many cases.
>
> I'm not aware of much work on the theoretical study of intelligent space.
> Maybe this should be tackled first?
>
> Any comments or suggestions would be appreciated. Either to rekindle my
> enthusiasm for AI, or to confirm my suspicions.
>
> Regards
>
> Martin Sewell
> martin@msewell.force9.co.uk
>
>

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