Re: AI - WHY?

Oliver Bandel (oliver@first.in-berlin.de)
Wed, 11 Nov 1998 04:44:49 +0100 (MET)

Martin Sewell <martin@msewell.force9.co.uk> wrote:
> Hello (or perhaps: "Help!")

> I am currently doing a PhD in Intelligent Trading Systems (as in stock
> markets, etc.), and as the title suggests fully intended to utilise various
> aspects of Artificial Intelligence. As you'd imagine, the major goal is
> trying to predict an almost-but-not-quite-random time series.

All "waepons" of market which are known by all will be unable to work.

To get an advantage in market, you have to be better/faster in predicting
(or spying, or lying...).
If you find a way to predict better then others, you will take advantage.
If you tell other people, how to do this, and if therefore everyone know,
how to get an advantage in using your special predicting algorithm, nobody
will have an advantage that is better then the others and therefore nobody
will have an advantage and the problem will start again.

That's because in human belongings there is not only random, there is
INTERPRETATION of facts and there is SELF-REFLECTION.

If you want to get rich, don't tell others your prediction algorithm.

Another (the best) way of prediction is controlling.

If you are a monopolist, you say peoples, where to go:

"Where do you wan't to go tomorrow?"
"You "wan't" to go the ways I tell you..."

> Neural networks, genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic - they all seemed so
> interesting (yes, even fun!), my only concern was which technique(s) were
> best applied to this sort of application.

The problem is recursive. You can't solve the problem for all times.
The prediction algorithm must be able to detect itself an its effect.
And it must be able to change itself. (It must be able to create itself!)
It must be able to predict itself and its effect and its own way to
change itself and the effect of this.

Perhaps it's better for you to study biotechnology.... so you can
create a specialized marketer which will call you "master" and
will give you all the billions of dollars which it earns. ;-)

("Genetic Engeneering, eins, zwei, drei, vier...")

Ciao,
Oliver

P.S.: I hope my english isn't as terrible as I think about it.

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