Re: Fuzzy logic v. Monte Carlo simulation

Gareth Baker (g.baker@dl.ac.uk)
Mon, 22 Dec 1997 20:15:34 +0100 (MET)

You might try reading this paper on the subject:

"Uncertainty representation and propagation in quantified risk assessments
using fuzzy sets"
J Quelch & T T Cameron
Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 1994, Vol 7, No 6, PP
463-473

It compares calculations done using Monte Carlo simulations and using fuzzy
sets.

Hope this helps
Regards
Gareth Baker

CCLRC
Daresbury Laboratory
Warrington
UK, WA4 4AD

g.baker@dl.ac.uk

Robert Salwasser wrote in message <3492F6CF.566E@pacbell.net>...
>I'm beginning to research applications and software for my commercial
>real estate firm to use in forecasting income and expenses, and future
>yields, for the properties we manage. I have used FuziCalc to aid in my
>analysis and projections (interesting program) and am thinking about
>purchasing a copy of @Risk or Crystal Ball as well.
>
>The issue that has surfaced is what is the difference between these two
>approaches; the fuzzy logic (of FuziCalc) versus the Monte Carlo
>simulation (used in @Risk and Crystal Ball), and how might the results
>differ? (Assuming, of course, that my assumptions are the same in each
>program.)
>
>Thanks in advance for your help.