Re: [Q] possibility = plausib...

JWLists@aol.com
Tue, 24 Jan 1995 11:44:53 -0500


My quick response is that possibility applies to an "event" and measures in
some sense the absence of conditions which would make that event impossible.
Plausibility, on the other hand, usually refers to a logical or causal
framework, as in a plausible explanation for an observation or a plausible
reason for someone's action. I would say that plausibility therefore applies
to a relationship of some sort (such as logical implication, causality,
correlation, etc.) in a way that may or may not incorporate the possibility
of its components.

Concrete example: a man disappears. We can speak of the possibility that he
has been murdered, the possibility of finding a weapon, etc. But we would
use the term plausibility when discussing motives or patterns, as in "How plau
sible is it that he was killed by a robber versus a jealous lover?" or "How
plausibly does this crime fit the pattern of the Bengal strangler?".

In terms of modeling, plausibility may be more like a measure of consistency o
ver groups of statements. It could be rigorously defined to be separate from
the actual possibilities of the component statements, so we could consider
Poss(A), Poss(B), and Plaus(A=>B) separately. Of course, if Poss(B)=0 and
Poss(A)=x>0, this should place an upper bound of 1-x on Plaus(A=>B), I would
think.

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