RE: "Inevitable Illusions"

From: Chris De Voir (devoirc@biotronik.com)
Date: Fri May 18 2001 - 14:55:48 MET DST

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    > -----Original Message-----
    > From: fuzzy-mail@dbai.tuwien.ac.at
    > [mailto:fuzzy-mail@dbai.tuwien.ac.at]On Behalf Of Wise
    > Sent: Wednesday, May 16, 2001 6:31 PM
    > To: Multiple recipients of list
    > Subject: Re: "Inevitable Illusions"
    >
    >
    > Chris
    >
    > No. In direct answer to your quest I do not know of
    > an examination of Fuzzy Theory from the perspective of
    > Cognitive Science. I am not however a good source of this
    > type of knowledge.
    >
    > BUT
    >
    > "People are already susceptible to cognitive illusions
    > just doing work-aday thinking in the Crisp world "
    >
    > Who said the world was Crisp ?
    >
    > Rob W

    Not me. But to clarify "...work-aday thinking in the Crisp world...", I
    meant the "Crisp" world as a simplification of the "Real" world to cope with
    the limitations of human powered rationality. In the Crisp world we can
    assign single Crisp values to perform Bayesian analysis to solve work-aday
    problems, such as, if 1:1000 people have a disease, and a test for that
    disease is has true and false positive rates 95% and 3% resp., how does one
    rate the necessity of treatment with serious side effects for any particular
    person testing positive? People make determinations like this in doctors'
    offices and other settings every day.

    My question is: Supposing that all the data in the above example take on
    Fuzzy values, how does one maintain logical clarity of Bayes to make good
    predictions/decisions using Fuzzy still subject to limited rationality?

    Regardless, the answer may still be, no, this has not been studied. But
    thanks for the response.

    Chris.

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