BISC: Otto Cordero


Subject: BISC: Otto Cordero
From: Masoud Nikravesh (nikravesh@eecs.berkeley.edu)
Date: Thu Dec 07 2000 - 12:12:15 MET


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Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC)
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To: BISC Members
From: Otto Cordero

<<contention is that any attempt to define causality within the conceptual
structure of classical logic and probability theory has no chance of
success.>>

Philosophical understanding of cause-effect relation has evolved to find it
self out of the bounds of the substance, placing causality as an statistical
presumption promoted by a frequent succession of events. Even more, recently
success of quantum mechanics has strengthen our believe in indeterminism and
eliminated any assumption of sufficiency/necessity relation of causes and
effects [Hitchcock 1].
Here, probabilistic theory of causation resembles this modern conception of
causality and provides the tools of probability for handling causal
relations, even when we can not assure the necessity of an effect.
 "The central idea behind probabilistic theory of causation is that causes
raises the probability of their effects; an effect may still occur in the
absence of cause or fail to occur in its presence" [Hitchcock 1].
I believe probabilist theory of causation presents a valid approach for
dealing with causality in the presence of indeterminism and incompleteness.
It is valid but incomplete, because conditional probabilities representing
causal strenght are not crisp in their nature. Causal strenght are more a
fuzzy cognition in it's nature than a crisp value. Even more humans
expressing causal strenghts are more capable of expressing causality as
linguistic variable than with exact numbers. Hence, I believe that impresice
probability dealed with fuzzy numbers arithmethic is a suitable
representation to manipulate causallity.
I would like to get your opinions about this approach. I believe
probabilistic framework should not be desestimated for the management of
causality.

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Otto Cordero
Centro de Tecnologías de Información - ESPOL - Ecuador
Campus Prosperina
Telf: 269 - 775
e-mail: ocordero@cti.espol.edu.ec
http://www.cti.espol.edu.ec
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