Re: Re: Imprecise Probability


Subject: Re: Re: Imprecise Probability
From: Marco A. Vera (m-vera@uniandes.edu.co)
Date: Sun Dec 03 2000 - 20:59:28 MET


Hi:

Does someone have an electronic copy of Prof. Zadeh's paper:
"Fuzzy Probabilities", Information Processing and Management 19,
148-153, 1984 ?

Please, post it to me.

Thanks and Best regards,

Marco A. Vera
EE, M.Sc. student
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering.
University of los Andes
Bogot, D.C. - Colombia
m-vera@uniandes.edu.co

----- Mensaje original -----
De: Ellen Hisdal <ellen@ifi.uio.no>
Para: Multiple recipients of list <fuzzy-mail@dbai.tuwien.ac.at>
Enviado: Domingo, 19 de Noviembre de 2000 05:01 p.m.
Asunto: Re: Imprecise Probability

>
> > Hello
> >
> > I would like to be more specific about my previous question....
> > Lets supose someone is asked to give his estimation about the
probability of
> > some event, answers like "0.78 of probability" are very unlikely.
I would
> > expect something as "high probability" or "low probability", here
we
> > linguistic terms, wich could be associated with fuzzy sets.
> > I am asking for more information on how fuzzy sets theory joins
with
> > probabilty theory to manage this kind of situations.
> >
> > Thanks a lot.
> >
> > Otto
>
> The use of `high probability', `low probability' etc. was suggested
by
> Zadeh long ago. I think it was in the paper
>
> @article{zoutline,
> author = {Zadeh, L.A.},
> title = {Outline of a New Approach to the Analysis of Complex
> Systems and Decision Processes},
> journal = {IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics},
> year = {1973},
> volume = {SMC-3},
> ignored = {footnote p. 31. Use of multiplication instead of min
for AND.
> Mentioned in my book in file intro.tex, sect. 1.7.3.},
> pages = {28-44} }
>.
>
> He simply defines a fuzzy set `high' or `low' over the interval
[0,1].
>
> Personally I have an idea that in most cases one can just as well
use a
> numerical estimate of a probability value, such as .85 for `high',
> >.15 for `low'. A fuzzy set over the interval [0,1] makes all
> calculations more complicated. And probably this use of uncertainty
in
> an uncertainty value does not really have important advantages
> over a definite probability value between 0 and 1 (which also
expresses
> an uncertainty in the occurrence of the given event).
>
> So when somebody tells you
> `there is a high probability of a given event',
> you can simply replace this by
> `there is a probability of .85 for the event'.
>
> Greetings,
> Ellen
>

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