BISC: Role of Fuzzy Logic in Risk Analysis


Subject: BISC: Role of Fuzzy Logic in Risk Analysis
From: Masoud Nikravesh (nikravesh@eecs.berkeley.edu)
Date: Thu Nov 30 2000 - 02:16:03 MET


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Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC)
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                                              Role of Fuzzy Logic in Risk Analysis

                                                         BISC Seminar

                                                       Ashok Deshpande
                                                     Former Deputy Director
                                     National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI)
                                                             India

                                                       December 5, 2000
                                                         405 Soda Hall
                                                         4:00-5:00pm

Abstract:

The analysis and modeling of the real world phenomenon or process involves uncertainties due to randomness of events. The problem is confounded due to imprecise data and the perception in human thinking.With a view to communicate the meaningful
information to the policy makers, public and alike, there is an urgent need to deal with these uncertainties especially in the process of risk analysis.Hazard identification, hazard assessment& quantification and it's evaluation leading to
formulation of risk mitigation measures and disaster management plan are the phases of comprehensive risk analysis.

Frequency of occurrence of hazardous event is by far the most significant task resulting in quantification of risk.The uncertainties in this task stem from the imprecise or sparse failure data and human error.An attempt has been made to demonstrate
the utility of the concepts based on fuzzy logic while dealing with the uncertainties in failure data used in the computation of frequency of occurrence of hazardous event through fault tree analysis.

The case study relates to fuzzification of fault tree ( termed as fuzzy fault tree analysis) of double walled double integrity ammonia storage tank of 15,000 ton capacity using the available failure data of process control instruments.
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