Re: Imprecise Probability


Subject: Re: Imprecise Probability
From: Gert de Cooman (Gert.DeCooman@rug.ac.be)
Date: Sun Nov 19 2000 - 22:51:53 MET


Otto Cordero wrote:
> I would like to be more specific about my previous question....
> Lets supose someone is asked to give his estimation about the probability of
> some event, answers like "0.78 of probability" are very unlikely. I would
> expect something as "high probability" or "low probability", here we
> linguistic terms, wich could be associated with fuzzy sets.
> I am asking for more information on how fuzzy sets theory joins with
> probabilty theory to manage this kind of situations.

Peter Walley and I have been working towards the formulation of a theory
of "fuzzy probability", i.e., a theory that can deal with (allow us to
model and manipulate) vague probability assessments. Our approach is
based on the theory of imprecise probabilities (see for instance
http://ippserv.rug.ac.be); actually it is a generalisation of that
theory. It provides a calculus for fuzzy probabilities (if I have vague
probability assessments for some events, what can I infer about the
probability of other events?), and it gives an operationalisable and
behavioural (i.e. in terms of behavioural dispositions) definition to
the notion of a fuzzy probability.

We are still finishing two rather large papers we wrote on the subject,
one mathematical and one more "philosophical", but as soon as they are
ready (in less than a month), I'll post an announcement to this list,
since there seems to be an interest for it. There already is a
conference paper about the mathematics (calculus):

Gert de Cooman, Possibilistic previsions, Proceedings of IPMU'98
(Seventh Conference on Information Processing and Management of
Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, July 6 - 10, 1998, Paris,
France), volume I, pp. 2-9, Editions E.D.K., Paris.

A preprint can be downloaded from my web site (ippserv.rug.ac.be/~gert,
under the heading "publications").

Best wishes,

Gert de Cooman

-- 
==============================================================
Prof. dr. ir. Gert de Cooman
Onzekerheidsmodellering en systeemtheorie/
Uncertainty modelling and systems theory
--------------------------------------------------------------
E-mail: gert.decooman@rug.ac.be
URL:    http://ippserv.rug.ac.be/~gert
--------------------------------------------------------------
Universiteit Gent
Onderzoeksgroep SYSTeMS
Technologiepark - Zwijnaarde 9
9052 Zwijnaarde 
Belgium
--------------------------------------------------------------
Tel: +32-(0)9-264 56 53
Fax: +32-(0)9-264 58 40
==============================================================

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