Re: Technical Analysis in the United Kingdom


Subject: Re: Technical Analysis in the United Kingdom
From: Robin B. Lake (rbl@hal.EPBI.CWRU.Edu)
Date: Fri Nov 10 2000 - 17:16:53 MET


> Dear Colleague
> I admit there is no way to predict stock prices in short term only by
> their previous prices.But have you thought about forecasting of it in long
> or median term especially by means of a fuzyz rule-based?
> I am working on predicting of some stock prices of Tehran Stock Exchange
> with a fuzzy Rule-Based which its rules are calculated by means of fuzzy
> clustering and I think you can do it too.
>
> M Y Amin-Davar
>
"One Test is Worth a Thousand Expert Opinions"

Believing that there is a true physics to describe stock market dynamics,
I built a fast prototype of a market prediction system, based in part on
fuzzy logic principles. I tested it with real trades (mostly options
on indices: OEX, NDX) for two months. Using the system's predictions,
which lead the market by 2 hours to one day, I made 80 out of 100 day
trades (not holding overnight) and netted about 15% gain per month.

The system uses nothing more than the Open High Low Last Volume
for each stock in the index portfolio.

Results and discussion may be found at:

http://junior.apk.net/~lake

You CAN, indeed, predict short-term market movements and fuzzy logic is
an important tool in doing so.

Regards,
Robin Lake
rbl@hal.cwru.edu

> On Thu, 2 Nov 2000, Randy J. Solo wrote:
>
> > Technical analysis is bunk. There is NO correlation (or almost none)
> > between previous and future prices of individual stocks. Chaos theory is
> > wrong...it is a true random walk.

Randy -

At this point, I can say with confidence that markets are not
efficient (everyone does have the same access to the pricing information, but
not in the same time frame; and the different dynamics of decision-making
resulting from this disparity in time access results in a truely non-random
walk.

> >
> > See post "Short term prediction".
> >
> > >We're equally interested in those who have done any work that refutes
> > >Technical Analysis.
> >

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