Re: BISC: A Challenge to Bayesians (augmented version)


Subject: Re: BISC: A Challenge to Bayesians (augmented version)
From: Michiel de Roo (michiel@N-O-SPAMgeo.uu.nl)
Date: Sat Aug 12 2000 - 04:54:07 MET DST


You wrote:

--Usually Robert returns from work at about 6 pm. What is the
  probability that Robert is home at 6:30 pm? What is the earliest
  time at which the probability that Robert is home is high?

Isn't this typically the wrong question ? The probability is of course
0 that Robert would be home *exactly* 6:30. You already stated that he
usually returns "at about" 6 pm, this introduces a notice of
inexactness. Why not introduce the same inexactness in the question ?
Then if you quantify this, like in "what's the probability that Robert
returns between 6:30 and 6:31", the answer is easily given by PT if
the distribution is known.

Michiel de Roo.

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