**Subject: **Re: BISC: A Challenge to Bayesians (augmented version)

**From: **Michiel de Roo (*michiel@N-O-SPAMgeo.uu.nl*)

**Date: **Sat Aug 12 2000 - 04:54:07 MET DST

**sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]**Next message:**mindspring: "S&P 500 Neural Nets Updated for Weekend"**Previous message:**Ernesto Damiani: "R: How can Fuzzy logic be useful in web intelligence and IT."**Maybe in reply to:**Michelle T. Lin: "BISC: A Challenge to Bayesians (augmented version)"**Maybe reply:**Michiel de Roo: "Re: BISC: A Challenge to Bayesians (augmented version)"

You wrote:

--Usually Robert returns from work at about 6 pm. What is the

probability that Robert is home at 6:30 pm? What is the earliest

time at which the probability that Robert is home is high?

Isn't this typically the wrong question ? The probability is of course

0 that Robert would be home *exactly* 6:30. You already stated that he

usually returns "at about" 6 pm, this introduces a notice of

inexactness. Why not introduce the same inexactness in the question ?

Then if you quantify this, like in "what's the probability that Robert

returns between 6:30 and 6:31", the answer is easily given by PT if

the distribution is known.

Michiel de Roo.

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**Next message:**mindspring: "S&P 500 Neural Nets Updated for Weekend"**Previous message:**Ernesto Damiani: "R: How can Fuzzy logic be useful in web intelligence and IT."**Maybe in reply to:**Michelle T. Lin: "BISC: A Challenge to Bayesians (augmented version)"**Maybe reply:**Michiel de Roo: "Re: BISC: A Challenge to Bayesians (augmented version)"

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