Problem in Fuzzy Risk Analysis


Subject: Problem in Fuzzy Risk Analysis
From: Francis Wat (99902764r@polyu.edu.hk)
Date: Tue Jul 11 2000 - 22:42:49 MET DST


Hi All,

     I am a MPhil Student and now doing a research about risk analysis
to determine the overall risk of a project. A group of decision maker
need to input linguistic varables about the probability of failure and
severity of loss, then return a overall risk also in terms of lingusitc
variable. However, I want to know the difference between the following
two methodology.
    1. Fuzzy expert system approach. i.e. define memebership function,
rule base, inference etc.

    2. Based on fuzzy set theory approach. i.e. natural language
representation (define the fuzzy set of the linguistic variable), fuzzy
set evaluation of risk (based on fuzzy weight mean), then linguistic
approximation (using the euclidean method). this approach can be refer
to (Schmucker, K.J. (1984), Fuzzy Sets, Natural Language Computations
and Risk Analysis, Computer Science Press.)

    Moreover, any recommandation can give on the calculation of the
group of decision perspective. e.g. can I just take the average of their
given lingustic variable to be a input variable to the system?

Thank a lots!!!

Francis

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