Re: efficient markets


Subject: Re: efficient markets
From: Robin B. Lake (rbl@hal.EPBI.CWRU.Edu)
Date: Mon Feb 28 2000 - 18:49:16 MET


> I totally agree with Rob Lake! The market clearly isn't efficient. There is
> “some "evidence of heard behaviour” according texts found in the major
> academic journals. But what can a guy looking at the data for a month or two
> find out? Personally I think one analyse the data for years (I am not dumb).
> Once you find tradable patterns you still have to trade, i.e. many other
> factors, like marketing, finding money, money management, management etc,
> comes in to play.
> I am using ANNs and GA and have dabbled with Rough Set? Why should I bother
> with Fuzzy Logic?
> /fb
>
>

A market-predicting "system" is just that --- a system comprised of
a set of interconnected component tools. In building my system, I've
not used ANNs nor GAs, simply because with these two tools, you
can never be certain what will happen when a novel pattern is
presented.

Fuzzy techniques fare much better simply because the system's response
set seems to be more coherent and stable than with ANNs and GAs,
particularly in "fringe" situations where markets are moving in
unusual ways.

Cheers,
Rob Lake
rbl@hal.cwru.edu
 

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