Re: efficient markets


Subject: Re: efficient markets
From: Paul Victor Birke (nonlinear@home.com)
Date: Sun Feb 27 2000 - 14:37:29 MET


FREDRIK BERCHTOLD wrote:
>
> I totally agree with Rob Lake! The market clearly isn't efficient. There is
> “some "evidence of heard behaviour” according texts found in the major
> academic journals. But what can a guy looking at the data for a month or two
> find out? Personally I think one analyse the data for years (I am not dumb).
> Once you find tradable patterns you still have to trade, i.e. many other
> factors, like marketing, finding money, money management, management etc,
> comes in to play.
> I am using ANNs and GA and have dabbled with Rough Set? Why should I bother
> with Fuzzy Logic?

********************8
Dear Prof. Dr. Berchtold

Like the comparison of Fuzzy Sets to Probability Theory, one uses Fuzzy
ideas/concepts when it gives one **some clear advantage**. If you
think, in your context, you could find no use for Fuzzy, then so be it!
But some caution here as this position presumes one knows all aspects of
Fuzzy quite well. You can never say Fuzzy has no advantage unless one
is sure of this statement--what you are leaving behind by ignoring the
Fuzzy methodology and all its current ideas, concepts and practices.

Anyways, Rough Set Theory seems to be related to Fuzzy Sets no mind how
the originators say it is so different.
Rough Sets is similar in spirit to Fuzzy Sets and ideas from Rough may
be used to expand Fuzzy some day, IMHO.

Paul

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