Fuzzy Botle (was Adding more evidence)


Subject: Fuzzy Botle (was Adding more evidence)
From: Luis Arguelles (CARBONAR) (arguelles.cbnr@infolid.es)
Date: Wed Jan 26 2000 - 18:17:24 MET


No, no, you should go for bottle number 2. Take the following into account:

The second bottle has a "poisonous" membership value of .1and this implies
this bottle has a membership value of 0.9 to the set of non-poisonous
drinks. This stament has no relation with probilities and describes the
bottle as "being rather healthy". That's *intrinsic* information about the
*true* nature of the bottle's content.

On the other hand, if you chose bottle #1, then you are playing games. If
you pick a deadly poisonous bottle by chance, then you'll be dead.

This example usually makes fool the people that comes from classic
statistical fields, but is really funny and interesting. Another similar
example is described on chapter 1 of "Fuzzy Logic with Engineering
Aplications", by Timothy Ross.

Sincerely,
Luis Arguelles
R+D Department Director
Carbonar S.A.
Oviedo, Spain, EU

>>>
My english says that go for the one with membership value .1
of course if I want to live.
I am not sure but it may translate to:
1. There is 10% chance that the bottle has a deadly
poison.probability .1
2. The bottle has deadly poison with concentration 10%.
membership value .1

I hope its OK.

Ashish

In article <388DA681.C2922AC0@mail.montclair.edu>,
  fuzzy-mail@dbai.tuwien.ac.at wrote:
>
> > it somehow goes like this:
> > Assume a bottle is deadly poisonous with probability .1 . Another
> > bottle has a "poisonous" membership value of .1 . Which one would
> > you drink assuming that the poison's concentration of less than
> > 20% is without harm for the human body?
>>>

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