Re: Adding more evidence


Subject: Re: Adding more evidence
From: Arno Dienenthal (A.Dienenthal@iml.fhg.de)
Date: Mon Jan 24 2000 - 15:28:01 MET


> >
> > There is a subtle but very important point to be made regarding the language used
> > above: fuzzy membership values are not (!) "chances" (probabilities that some
> > event will ocurr). While the math may work out the same in some cases, and fuzzy
> > membership may happen to map to probabilities in some cases, fuzziness is not
> > chance.
> ***************

> Indeed!!
>
> You must retell the famous story about the >>poisonous water bottles<<
> to clearly see that. You must have it copied somewhere.

it somehow goes like this:
Assume a bottle is deadly poisonous with probability .1 . Another
bottle has a "poisonous" membership value of .1 . Which one would
you drink assuming that the poison's concentration of less than
20% is without harm for the human body?

greetings

Arno

-- 
Arno Dienenthal, M.S.(USA)
Fraunhofer Institut fuer Materialfluß und Logistik (IML)
Abteilung Entsorgungslogistik
Joseph-von-Fraunhofer-Str. 2-4
D-44227 Dortmund

Tel.: +49 (0)231 9743 -347 Fax.: +49 (0)231 9743 -451 e-mail: A.Dienenthal@iml.fhg.de

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