Re: Adding more evidence


Subject: Re: Adding more evidence
From: Paul Victor Birke (nonlinear@home.com)
Date: Sat Jan 22 2000 - 19:53:23 MET


Will Dwinnell wrote:
>
> Larry Serflaten wrote:
> "It looks to me like both conditions must be true, and both have a 50% chance of
> being the correct value to pass the test. In other words, not knowing anything,
> there is a (.5 * .5) 25% chance that any friut we pick up will be the
> watermellon."
>
> There is a subtle but very important point to be made regarding the language used
> above: fuzzy membership values are not (!) "chances" (probabilities that some
> event will ocurr). While the math may work out the same in some cases, and fuzzy
> membership may happen to map to probabilities in some cases, fuzziness is not
> chance.
***************
Dear Will

Indeed!!

You must retell the famous story about the >>poisonous water bottles<<
to clearly see that. You must have it copied somewhere.

But it clearly illustrates the fundamental early idea of Fuzziness.
One has to be clear on the distinction between membership and chance
(frequentist probability).

all the best.
Paul

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