problem in risk analysis


Subject: problem in risk analysis
From: nic (nic@yahoo.com)
Date: Fri Jan 14 2000 - 10:08:06 MET


I am a student, in engineer,at the university of Florence, Italy. In the
next semester I have to do my final project in risk analysis.
I'm very new in fuzzy theory. so I'm looking for someone that can help me
step by step or with something to read or suggestion.
Does anybody of you work in risk analisys?

For example I've to do this simple problem:

(A*B*C)/D

Where A,B,C,D are crisp number (risk parameter). Well, my prof. ,wants to
use the fuzzy
number for this expression; so every crisp number must be transformed in a
fuzzy
(as I read every crisp n gives two fuzzy number with different grade of
activation). The problem is that I've seen the application only for 2 fuzzy
number, and I think that with 4 number the rules are a lot. I've tought to
do it at the same time 4 triangular inputs and singleton output, but there
could be a lot of calculus, and I probably want to use Excel to do this.
Another question is: how can I do to calculate the inference of a fuzzy with
excel?

Thank you in advance for every suggestion.
My email address is nicolab@ftbcc.it
best regards

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