uncertainty workshop


Subject: uncertainty workshop
From: vladik (vladik@cs.utep.edu)
Date: Tue Jan 11 2000 - 17:19:04 MET


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Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2000 19:05:33 -0500
From: Scott Ferson <scott@ramas.com>
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UNCERTAINTY
Its Nature, Analytical Treatment and Interpretation

10-11 February 2000
Key Bridge Marriott
Arlington, Virginia

This two-day forum on uncertainty will bring together theorists
and practitioners in risk analysis, policy making, philosophy
and computer science to address the emerging issues about what
it means to admit we're unsure. The questions to be addressed
include

      What’s the real difference between wishful
      thinking and a prudent assumption?

      Is it essential to distinguish uncertainty
      from variability and ambiguity?

      Can Bayesian rationality be consistent with
      open and democratic decision making?

      Is probability theory the only consistent
      approach for handling uncertainty?

      What are the practical implications of
      epistemological constraints?

      When is a decision defensible even if the
      data it’s based on are incomplete?

      Do bright-line definitions of ‘adverse
      effects’ thwart optimal decision making?

The conference is intended as a forum for discussion and
debate, rather than merely a teaching workshop. The forum
will be focused by short presentations by invited speakers
and will allow ample time for open-format discussion and
debate among all participants. Speakers include

  Timothy Barry, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
  Vicki Bier, University of Wisconsin at Madison
  Rosina Bierbaum, Environment Director, White House OSTP
  Todd Bridges, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
  Mark Colyvan, University of Tasmania
  Douglas Dixon, Electric Power Research Institute
  Scott Ferson, Applied Biomathematics, (organizer)
  Adam Finkel, Director of Health Standards, OSHA
  Kathryn Blackmond Laskey, George Mason University
  Deborah Mayo, Virginia Polytechnic Institute
  Richard Neapolitan, Northeastern Illinois University
  Teddy Seidenfeld, Carnegie Mellon University
  Ronald Yager, Iona College

The forum is sponsored by the Society for Risk Analysis,
with co-sponsorship by the U.S. Army Engineer Research
and Development Center and the Electric Power Research
Insitute.

The deadline for early registration is 26 January 2000.
Consult the webpage http://www.ramas.com/feb1011.htm for
more information and registration details.

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